Population explosion of sharpnose puffers

Photo credit: Paola van der Bent, posted on the Web site of the Coral Reef Alliance (CORAL.org).

Several people on the coral list serve of NOAA asked about an explosion of the population of sharpnose puffers in the Caribbean.

The discussion started with this post:

I was wanting to post about the huge population increase I have noted in the waters of Roatan Honduras. As a full time dive instructor here for the last five years the last six months I have observed an increase of 300-400% in
the abundance of this fish.

Anyone know why or what it may indicate?

Regards,
Will Welbourn, Course Director and Director of Roatan Marine Park

Others added their observations:

I add to Will's report. Snorkel sites around Turneffe Atoll, Belize are filled with sharpnose puffers which have increased in the past 4 months approximately. They can be found dead at many sites, are easy to catch and have even become annoying, intruding in transect tapes and rebars.

Just two days ago on a trip to Lighthouse Reef I observed the same thing, so recruitment must have been widespread. Any other possibilities? Does anyone know it's main predators? Cheers, Katherine

And another report came from Akumal:

Hello all,
We (at UNAM and CEA Akumal) also observed an increase on shaprnose puffer some weeks ago but it was followed by a massive mortality from Akumal to Puerto Morelos, Quintana Roo, México. We documented the fact by counting death or dying fishes on the beach. Has anyone else seen this sort of mortality?
Biol. Erika Díaz-Almeyda
Unidad Académica Puerto Morelos
Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, UNAM

The post below by Dr. John Ogden seems to offer a satisfactory explanation of the population boom:

My guess is that sharpnose puffers have the same type of recruitment as Bill Gladfelter and I observed for balloonfish (Diodon holocanthus) many years ago in St. Croix. The larvae are pelagic for a long larval life, up to a year. During this interval; they slowly gather into huge schools of many thousands of individuals (about 3cm long) which then recruit en mass to whatever coastal region is favorable within the time frame of development. The area then becomes completely flooded with recruits which gradually disperse and are preyed upon. You could call this a sort of 17-year locust type of recruitment.

It would be interesting to see if others have observed this type of recruitment which may be more common than we know.